Could Trump, as President, really end the Ukraine War?

Here is a basic path Trump could take. It’s a combination of threats and promises.

He tells Zelensky he’s going to cut off every penny of military aid unless Zelensky comes to the table to negotiate peace with Putin.

This would be effective—but if other NATO countries supply the Ukraine with long-range missiles which can strike deep into Russia, Zelensky might refuse.

On balance, it’s quite possible Trump’s threat would bring Zelensky to agree on peace talks.

Then Trump speaks to Putin. He tells him to negotiate peace, but not to insist on keeping every inch of Ukraine territory he’s gained so far in the war.

This is iffy. Putin wants all that territory. So Trump could threaten tighter sanctions than currently apply to Russia. But he could also make promises:

Increased US assistance in building a more modernized infrastructure in Russia. Plus a large amount of cash. Plus putting in, say, high-end resorts, which would attract tourists from all over the world. MRGA—Make Russia Great Again—but not in the way Putin has been contemplating.

Trump could make similar promises to Zelensky. Rebuild the Ukraine and create it anew as a jewel.

Putin would consider Trump’s offer, against his obsession with restoring Mother Russia to its former expanded boundaries. Putin sees this as his Holy Crusade.

Trump could also issue threats against other NATO leaders who want to continue the war—he would cut off US funding.

A number of US ex-military officers consider Trump an idiot and an autocrat, who knows nothing about the war on the ground and what the stakes are for the Ukraine, Russia.

On the other hand, Trump, who prides himself on “the art of the deal,” would be willing to go all-out to make his mark, by satisfying Zelensky and Putin with many gifts—thus ending the conflict.

Perhaps the biggest sticking point in a peace negotiation is the Ukraine territory Putin has already taken. He might well refuse to budge on giving back any of that. And Zelensky would insist on recovering at least some of it.

This is where things could stall. Badly.

If Putin and Zelensky hold firm, peace is down the drain and the war continues.

Of course, outside factors also play a role in any peace negotiation. For example, US Democrats would try to do whatever they could to make Trump fail, because they hate him to the core.

NATO countries could follow suit. Their leaders also hate Trump.

I’m not saying Trump’s tactics would work. Nor am I saying he understands the depth of emotion of people in the Ukraine and Russia. He’s just trying to make a deal. As a businessman would. With gifts and threats.

There is a disadvantage in that approach: