25 years ago, Pentagon war planners knew horrific consequences of war in the Strait of Hormuz
(This is Part-6; for Part-7, go here; for Part-5, go here.)
We’re seeing those consequences now.
Oil tankers stacked up and refusing to enter that kill zone. Other ships carrying sulfur for copper mining and fertilizers for crops also refusing.
Global energy prices are spiking and going higher every day. Meaning the prices of ALL goods are rising.
The war planners have always assumed—wrongly—that a blockage in the Strait of Hormuz would only last a few days. Because overwhelming US military force would quickly decimate an adversary like Iran.
The planners ignored a truly scandalous military simulation from 2002—their own exercise called Millennium Challenge.
This wasn’t just a tabletop exercise. It was a $250 million war game involving 13,000 US soldiers.
There were two teams. The US side—the blue team—and the Iran-like bad guys—the red team.
The red team was headed up by retired US General Paul Van Riper. Yes, that’s his real name.
Van Riper used a variety of quick asymmetric strategies and blew the blue team out of the water.
This was terribly embarrassing to the Pentagon, who stopped the whole war game immediately and “reset” it. With new rules and limitations that guaranteed a blue team US victory.
General Van Riper used tactics Iran has been putting in place for at least 20 years. Small fast attack boats in the Strait of Hormuz. Mines placed in the water. Missiles fired from hidden locations on the shore. (You can now add drones to the overall approach.)
Van Riper proved Iran choking off the Strait wouldn’t just last a few days:

