Strait of Hormuz and Regime Change: 2 peas in a pod. And…
The pod is impossible to crack, to get at the peas and do something effective with them.
I’m writing this piece two hours before Trump addresses the nation on the war. Because it doesn’t matter what he says; certain facts remain.
Even if the US could find and install a new friendly regime in Iran, how long would it last?
The US would have to OCCUPY Iran. For years. Decades. This isn’t just boots on the ground. It’s a massive undertaking that goes on and on.
Look at Iraq now as an illustration. The US has been there for almost 25 years, as the de facto authority in the country. It has a huge economic chokehold on Iraq, because every dollar of oil revenue Iraq makes passes through the US banking system. So the US could cut off that money whenever it wants to. And yet…
The US is struggling to maintain control against pro-Iran rebel groups within Iraq. Right now. All these years later.
Occupying Iran to maintain regime change means controlling 90 million people and an army of about 500,000 Iranians, of which 100,000 are highly trained Revolutionary Guard soldiers.
The Strat of Hormuz presents the same basic problem. Control, if even possible at the moment (it isn’t), on into the future is not anywhere near a realistic goal.
It only takes dropping a few mines in water and launching a few swarms of drones to disrupt the Strait and turn it into a no-go zone. Today, next week, next month, two years from now.
Trump and Israel opened Pandora’s Box: